Core Prelude: Jing-Jin-Ji Related Stocks soared yesterday, and stocks of real estate, steel and construction material industries rose altogether.
Due to the strategic positioning of central government, Coordinated development of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei Province (shortened as Jing-Jin-Ji) has been specified as a national strategy. Yesterday, price of Jing-Jin-Ji related stocks (or Jing-Jin-Ji Concept Stock) rocketed. Stimulated by Jing-Jin_ji concept, stocks in these sections such as real estate, steel, securities business and construction materials underwent a complete rise. 24 stocks, including Tangshangang, Vantone Real Estate, Hebei Steel rose up to its trading limit prices, among which Hebei Steel had an enlarged trade amount and it has increased by 16% in the previous 5 trading days. The biggest beneficiaries from Jing-Jin_Ji Concept will be the enterprises of land holders and construction materials, but pure commercial and residential developers benefit less. Experts say that Jing-Jin-Ji concept can be expected to become the next Shanghai Free Trade Zone concept, and the third echelon of Jing-Jin-Ji subjects.
Land holders benefit the most and investors are optimistic about the middle-term performance of real-estate related stocks of Jing-Jin-Ji concept.
According to the current industrial structure, there is necessity for establishing a circum-Beijing economic ring to absorb Beijing’s economic ruling-out effect and to promote a concurrent development of provinces and cities around Beijing. Yesterday, 13 stocks in real estate section rose up to their daily limited trading prices, 10 of which are stocks issued by house developers, including Dalong Estates, Beijing North Star, and Thai Hot Group which has rich land reserves in Beijing. Statistics from Eastmoney.com showed that overall price of stocks of whole estates section rose by 3.31% yesterday and 8% in the past two days.
Hou Like, analyst of Guotai Junan Securities expressed that there was optimism about the middle-term performance of estates stocks of Jing-Jin-Ji Concept, because policies and plans concerning Jing-Jin-Ji national strategy would be carried out in 2nd quarter of the year.
Pure commercial and residential developers stand less chance.
A vast area will benefit from Jing-Jin-Ji region development plan, which functions as the 3rd pole for China’s economic growth. Whether Baoding is a sub-center doesn’t matter, but what matters is the new functional layout in Hebei Province in which Langfang, Zhangjiakou, Shijiazhuang and Baoding and other cities will accommodate organizations, people and industrial facilities moved from Beijing. A large quantity of infrastructure, labors and materials will be invested in Hebei Province weak industry and land property at present, making it lag far behind Beijing and Tianjin. Once integration of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei Province is implemented, the whole Hebei Province will undergo an earthshaking change.
However, some private fund collectors admonish that investors shall be precautious of some pseudo real estate concept stocks. One Cantonese investor argues that Jing-Jin-Ji related land business tends to incline to land readjustment, industrial shift, industrial park construction, and pure commercial and residential developers stand less chance.
Local governments declare to further promote Jing-Jin-Ji integration.
Policies regarding the integration can be traced up to the year of 2004. On February 12th, 2014, National Development & Reform Commission called a symposium on strategy of Jing-Jin-Ji’s economic development, and reached consensus to intensify cooperation and coordination between these regions.
While apparently, news released in February of this year again aroused people’s attention to Jing-Jin-Ji concept stocks. Reportedly, President Xi Jinping presided over a symposium in Beijing on February 26th, 2014, where he listened to a themed work report on Jing-Jin-Ji’s synergic development.
Another report says that Mr. Huan Xingguo, Mayor of Tianjin, emphasized on a government executive meeting on March 14th that the macro transportation system should be taken into consideration, so as to optimize “2-port & 4-road” arrangement, promote inter-regional connection and communication, improve carriage capacity, ameliorate service environment, strengthen eco-system protection and proactively absorb whatever is shifted from Beijing.
On March 18th, a meeting was held in Hebei Province, aiming at studying a policy for synergic development of Jing-Jin-Ji region. Mr. Zhang Qingwei, Governor of Heibei Province, pointed out that the stereotype of working alone should be thoroughly discarded, and more attention shall be paid to synergic development so as to engage in the macro synergic development arrangement of Jing-Jin-Ji region.
Another report says that Mr. Wang Anshun, Mayor of Beijing Municipality, expressed on a forum that persistent implementation of synergic development of Jing-jin-Ji region shall be carried through, and Beijing must be incorporated into the overall Jing-Jin-Ji and circum-Bohai economic zone strategy as to solve outstanding problems it’s facing now.
Jing-Jin-Ji Concept stocks was expected follow the suit of Shanghai Free Trade concept stocks.
Most securities agencies anticipates that Jing-Jin-Ji concept stocks could be another lasting regional concept stocks in the wave of Shanghai Free Trade concept stocks
After initiation of Shanghai Free Trade Area, Longtou Waigaoqiao Stock (Shang Hai Stock Exchange, 600018) started to rise on August 30th, and its price rose up to limit in consecutive 13 trading days, and its price increased by 375.26% in 18 trading days. However, prices of Shanghai Free Trade Concept stocks started to decline one month later, including Waigaoqiao, price of which dropped sharply from 64.16 Yuan to less that 30 Yuan by the end of trade closure yesterday, decreasing by 58%. Other stocks like Pudong Gold-Coin and Shangshi Development, which had ever rocketed, also dropped to their normal state.
Accordingly, analysts suggest that investment in Jing-Jin-Ji Concept Stocks is surely profitable, but investors should put their money in and out quickly, or the situation of Shanghai Free Trade Concept Stocks will recur again. There will be great fluctuation of the stocks after policy is officially released, so high-price buyers are likely to make a loss.
The 3rd echelon of Jing-Jin-Ji investors is looming.
Same as speculation on Shanghai Free Trade concept, real estate section in this wave also bore the brunt in the spree of investment Trade concept stocks, followed by Infrastructure construction and energy sections. As time elapsed, speculative fund went further and financial reform and cultural opening concept stocks were manipulated. Currently, investors are speculating in infrastructure concept stocks, or the second echelon, and investors started to input money in Jidong Cement, Hebei Xuangong and Jidong Equipments stocks last week, all of which rose by 30%.
Regarding Jing-jin-Ji Concept, there is an investment spree in real estate stocks, the 1st echelon, and infrastructure construction, the 2nd. Hence, it’s reasonable to explore the 3rd echelon.